Gold and Silver Report 1 June 2015

Gold held near a two-week low after comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicating it is gearing up for a rate hike, which would not be delayed until next year. However, some weaker economic data and uncertainty over a lack of resolution in current Greek debt talks supported gold, seeing a slight rise on Friday.

Start of Week Price and Charts snapshot:

Source: bloomberg

‘

Source: NASDAQ

On Monday, gold prices dropped slightly as the U.S. dollar gained traction after the Federal Reserve signalled it is expecting the U.S. economy to bounce back from an early-2015 slump and poised to raise rates this year.^[1] On Tuesday gold fell by nearly 1% to a two-week low as the dollar pushed higher following the recent comments from the Fed,^[2] while on Wednesday, gold stayed near the two-week low, while bullion fell to its steepest single-day fall since April 30.^[3] On Thursday, Gold inched higher away from the 2-1/2 week low as the dollar fell after an unexpected rise in U.S. jobless claims, alongside uncertainty about Greece debt talks. However, China’s net gold imports from Hong Kong tumbled to an eight-month low in April.^[4] On Friday, gold edged up from its previous trough, thanks to a softer dollar and the uncertainty over Greece’s debt talks, but remained under pressure from the now anticipated U.S. rate hike.^[5]

The U.S. dollar was strong after the Fed’s last statements, with the greenback reaching a one-month high versus major currencies, and an eight-year high against the yen. U.S. business investment spending plans, new home sales, and consumer confidence also rose this month, signalling that economic growth may be picking up after a shaky first quarter. ^[6] AvaTrade chief market analyst Naeem Aslam said “Yellen last week has confirmed that she is still confident that the rates will rise this year and (gold) traders are not fond of this news at all.”^[7]. Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said “Expectations of an easing of the tightening proved wrong so far … but the Fed is clearly ruling out next year”.^[8] Meanwhile Barclays analyst Suki Cooper said “We maintain the view that the third quarter is likely to be the weakest quarter for gold, given that we expect the Fed to start increasing rates in September, but the potential downside is likely to be limited”. ^[9]

Meanwhile in Europe, there have been mixed signals on the outcome of the current stage of talks over Greece’s debt. Although Greece has made a major payment recently, without reaching an agreement still risks default or bankruptcy in weeks. A Greek government spokesman said it intended to agree a cash-for-reforms deal by Sunday. However, eurozone officials indicated a deal was far from finalised.^[10]